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The Federal Reserve can print as much money as it likes, and it has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to create an economic boom when it wants to. It is, after all, easy to increase demand. Is it simply a matter of insufficient demand for goods? Surely not, except in the very short run. Moreover, beyond this indisputable point of arithmetic lies the question of what limits the overall number of jobs available.
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Unless there is some reason to think that free trade will increase total world spending-which is not a necessary outcome-overall world demand will not change. Because one country’s exports are another country’s imports, every dollar of export sales is, as a matter of sheer mathematical necessity, matched by a dollar of spending shifted from some country’s domestic goods to imports. But there is a problem with that argument. Why don’t economists subscribe to what sounds like common sense to businesspeople? The idea that free trade means more global jobs seems obvious: More trade means more exports and therefore more export-related jobs. However, economists in general do not believe that free trade creates more jobs worldwide (or that its benefits should be measured in terms of job creation) or that countries that are highly successful exporters will have lower unemployment than those that run trade deficits. presidential election and will likely be heard again in the upcoming race. This sort of rhetoric dominated the last U.S. According to that view, the United States must not only have free trade but also be sufficiently competitive to get a large proportion of the jobs that free trade creates.ĭo those propositions sound reasonable? Of course they do. The more the United States exports, the thinking goes, the more people we will employ, and the more we import, the fewer jobs will be available. Second, businesspeople tend to believe that countries compete for those jobs. Specifically, they believe that free trade agreements such as the recently concluded General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade are good largely because they mean more jobs around the world.
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business-people support free trade, they generally agree that expanded world trade is good for world employment. Exports and Jobsīusiness executives consistently misunderstand two things about the relationship between international trade and domestic job creation. Both issues involve international trade, partly because it is the area I know best but also because it is an area in which businesspeople seem particularly inclined to make false analogies between countries and corporations. Let me begin with two examples of economic issues that I have found business executives generally do not understand: first, the relationship between exports and job creation, and, second, the relationship between foreign investment and trade balances. By understanding that difference, we can begin to understand what it means to do good economic analysis and perhaps even help some businesspeople become the great economists they surely have the intellect to be. My point is that the style of thinking necessary for economic analysis is very different from that which leads to success in business. business executives got together with the 100 leading economists, the least impressive of the former group would probably outshine the most impressive of the latter. I am not claiming that business-people are stupid or that economists are particularly smart. Many people believe that someone who has made a personal fortune will know how to make an entire nation more prosperous. In fact, his or her advice is often disastrously misguided. Why should that be pointed out? After all, neither businesspeople nor economists are usually very good poets, but so what? Yet many people (not least successful business executives themselves) believe that someone who has made a personal fortune will know how to make an entire nation more prosperous. The habits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy. The converse is also true: What people learn from running a business won’t help them formulate economic policy. Those students understand a fundamental truth: What they learn in economics courses won’t help them run a business. College students who plan to go into business often major in economics, but few believe that they will end up using what they hear in the lecture hall.